I am not a banker or analyst, nor do I know about the macro environment, nor can I foresee the future, but for some reason, I often get asked, likely because I read and like to learn a lot, and here is my view. I do not give financial advice; these are my thoughts and food for thought as a person and for open discussion - here is my best guess.  

 "Interest-rate forecast. We project a year-end 2023 federal funds rate of 4.75%, falling to 2% by the end of 2024. Further out, our 2026 and long-run projection for the fed-funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield are 1.75% and 2.75%, respectively."

 FED --> Estimated Increase +25bps each Mai, June, and Juli. Terminal Rate max. 5.25-5.5%. EZB: 50/25/25bps in March, Mai, and June, max. Terminal rate of 3:75%. Many argue that banks are struggling, and the recent bailout of SVB, the Credit Suisse, and more may lower the ceiling. Another current indicator is the “Fed Put,” printing more money again and injecting 297 billion dollars, the most significant spike since March 2020. Correlating Bitcoin went up, and so on. In that scenario, inflation is here to stay longer. In the end, no one ever knows. 

 The "gale" is at its peak in mid-2023. Until Q2 2024, companies and startups will suffer from a ripple effect (bridge rounds with lower valuations, insolvencies, and more), as it's delayed and hasn't even arrived or seen yet - while M&A, etc., will profit (consolidation, etc.). For startups, a problem will be that they all will have to raise at the same time, Q3 2023 - Q2 2024, which will cause competition and a lack of liquidity to cover market needs. However, I hope for favorable investment decisions by those with liquidity in Q3 2023 (anti-cyclical smarties) and those who recover from 2021 greediness in Q2 2024 (HODL peeps). From that time, we will grow together again in a new macro world of adjusted reasonable multiples, a weaker China, a squeezed Europe, and a solid US but a powerful Asia Pacific region. 

There is much fear in the market. LPs, e.g., are not deploying because others don't (lemming effect), and FoF is having a hard time raising. There are many factors and variables in this, and all of the above could change in a second if, e.g., the Ukraine war would stop, just by positive human behavior toward investing. Whatever your interpretation of what I just wrote is, one fact is unambiguous: investing in early-stage software over the following years is the best asset class you can be in! This is my belief. Open for discussion, go!

And the households out there carry the burden with almost 20% food inflation end of this quarter. The basket median of inflation is fake (many important indicators are not taken into account by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)), and the actual price increase is heavy for the families. I hope this becomes better soon and producers and restaurants stay fair. To date, this is not what I am experiencing in Europe. 

. What does this mean to you as a founder (I invest in SaaS, exemplary)?

Ideally, when you did read the Sequoia and YC letter/overview almost 12 months ago, you lowered your burn and extended your runway. 

It means within one quarter, one year ago, most public software stocks lost 60% of their value, and this ripple effect goes top to bottom and is now slowly hitting growth startups. In Q3, and Q4 2023, it will hit Early-Stage startups, and valuation will decrease and normalize. Founders must be willing to accept this fact and work hard to catch up with their valuation from 2021. Increase ARR, be efficient, work hard on renewals, keep up Gross and Net Retention, and adjust growth overall, e.g., achieve a good FTE/ARR ratio, muscle up. Increase runway and catch up with your valuation in mid-2024. 

3. Limited Partners (LPs) - Open investment thoughts on the ecosystem

This is my personal Limited Partner view stated for the, at minimum, following three years. With a more professional ecosystem, more capital in the market, more knowledge available, and more educated founders, we see a very different landscape today than ten years ago. Limited Partner will adjust to it, driving a multi-stage strategy and entering an earlier professionalized terrain. However, the best vintages are ahead - that said, here goes:

Lets Talk Macroeconomics. How To Raise And Deploy Capital In Private Markets. 

Today is a memorable day for me. I am thrilled and keen to share my first investment with Robin Capital. I am grateful to partner with the Kombo Team: Alexander Kuebel, Niklas Higi, Fabian Rothfuß and Aike Hillbrands to support them on their journey. They are building integrations, so you dont have too. Unified APIs to unlock an ever-growing suite of HR and ATS integrations. I am happy I am close to this vertical and can support the front line. Likewise glad to work with fellow entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and peers from the HR Tech world, such as 

 (Co-Founder, CEO @Freckle Education), 

, the unified API for HR Tech. Here are some fun facts about me: I collect owls, have been playing basketball since I was four years old, and enjoy challenging my boundaries.

As Bill Aulet describes in "Disciplined Entrepreneurship," I also believe that entrepreneurship is a skill that can be learned. However, I have never delved deeper into this idea, as it has felt natural since childhood. From the earliest venture at seven years old (reselling my duplicate Panini Sticker in branded packages) to my first legal startup at 18, and now with Kombo, it has always felt like I could use my strengths to the best of my ability.

Both institutions have had a significant impact on my personal trajectory and that of the entire team. CODE was the place where I first felt like I wasn't alone in my drive to make a difference. Additionally, my co-founders and I got to know each other there, gaining two years of experience in what makes a bad startup and how to improve it. Joining Y-Combinator was the perfect next step for us after CODE. YC helped us understand startups and how to think big, and gave us the confidence that, despite our age, we could make an enormous impact.

At Kombo, we had already developed strong engineering power house before joining Y-Combinator. However, YC helped us improve in every area besides engineering, including B2B sales, maintaining co-founder relationships, fundraising, and product prioritization, among others. Essentially, YC shared a decade's worth of trial and error with us, enabling us to focus on pushing boundaries while minimizing repeated mistakes. Besides that, the YC brand helped us to increase the trust in Kombo for our GTM.

Before starting Kombo, the four of us worked as software engineers and had a desire to work on a project together. After brainstorming, we founded a company based on an open-source project by one of my co-founders (apk-mitm). Our main service was helping companies extract and analyze data from mobile apps. During that time, we gained expertise in communicating between APIs. Additionally, since one of our projects was in TA, we also encountered integration issues between job boards and the ATS of their customers. Having already spent a lot of time breaking up data silos at an API level and seeing a rise in HR Tech across the globe, we decided to tackle the integration problem in the HR Tech vertical.

We assist HR Tech companies of all sizes, from startups like Ravio to scale-ups like Factorial and enterprises like New Work, by enabling them to provide streamlined ATS and HRIS integration to their clients. Our customers have faced the challenge of dedicating a significant amount of engineering resources to developing and maintaining integrations prior to using Kombo. This can be a time-consuming and costly process that detracts from their core product features. Our business model is based on the number of integrations a customer has through Kombo, which grows with the customer over time.

One of the biggest challenges in building Kombo has been establishing relationships and partnerships with HRIS and ATS providers around the world. This was a major challenge in the early days and remains an essential part of our work. However, as awareness of our product has grown and more and more companies worldwide are using Kombo, it has become easier. Nowadays, we even receive inbound requests from HR systems that want to be integrated through us.

We establish strong partnerships with ATS and HRIS companies. Our superior understanding of integrating their public APIs allows us to offer consultation to our partners regarding market standards and best practices for designing and deploying future-proof APIs. This will be a key selling point for our partners' customers in the next decade. Additionally, we help our partners allocate fewer resources to technical partnership support, as their partners can normally connect to their APIs through Kombo.

TA and team building is definitely our biggest challenge. We know that as first-time founders we still have a lot to learn there and therefore we leverage our investors and network as much as possible. We also decided to hire only on-site in Berlin to eliminate additional complexity. As we still have some capital available, the downturn is an opportunity to efficiently attract good talent in the market.

We see that many of our partners (ATS & HRIS) now consider the connectivity of their products as a core feature. As a result, many of our integrations partners recommend their partners actively Kombo and have a strong interest in a deeper partnership. On the other hand, the downturn is leading to reduced growth in the TA and HRIS space in general - we see a slight trend from TA towards products focused on cost savings and transparency in the HR space.

I believe it's essential to have a combination of investors who understand the investment game and investors who deeply understand the problem we're solving with Kombo. We've done a great job by adding experienced investors, such as YC and 468, as well as individuals who have an in-depth knowledge of the problem we're solving, such as Paul Forster (Founder of Indeed), Sultan Saidov (Co-Founder of Beamery), and Sebastian Dettmers (CEO of Stepstone). Therefore, our institutional investors support us on the overall fundraising, while our individuals help us nail down the details and provide a signal that industry experts are convinced by what we are doing.

#2 Alexander Kuebel 

Sebastian Dettmers is the CEO of Stepstone. He wrote the book “The Great People Shortage.” He has been working with Axel Springer and Stepstone for almost 16 years.  

About Stepstone: 4000 FTE from 70 nations. Active business in +30 countries. Working with +150.000 employers worldwide. +100 million applications a year.  Stepstone is crushing it! With >𝟭 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝘂𝗿𝗼 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲𝘀 in 2022, they have not only set another record year but almost doubled the business in just two years - Matthias Döpfner, CEO Axel Springer, commented at Reuter on this: “a real milestone towards an IPO” and Henry Kravis from KKR said: “We need markets to work right. If we get the markets right, hopefully, we will get there,"  

I have known Sebastian for a decade when working at Axel Springer myself. Two years ago, I joined his advisory board supporting him and the team wherever I can. I am in awe of his leadership and what the team is constantly building. As I have always been passionate about connecting people to jobs at a scale I am excited to share this interview as my first.  

1. Hi Sebastian, tell me about yourself.  

Hi Robin, my name is Sebastian and I am CEO of StepStone, one of the world’s leading digital recruitment platforms. Besides that, I am a father of 3, a watersports lover, and recently also a book author of the German book “Die große Arbeiterlosigkeit” that can be translated into “The Great People Shortage”.  

2. I have known Stepstone for a decade and wonder what has changed. Some called it a sales engine. Since you became CEO, it feels like a Silicon Valley Company. What is Stepstone for you, and how do you see the transition going forward?  

We are a big digital business, but we try to preserve a startup-mindset.  With 4,000 people  around the globe working for Stepstone, it is hard to not become overly operationally  complex. This is why we constantly ask ourselves this question: Does what we do serve our  mission? Are we focused on helping people find jobs and helping companies to find great  talent? If not, let’s not do it.We are here to disrupt labor markets. Labor markets are slow and ineffective. Too many people do not feel engaged with their work, too many companies feel they do not have people with the the right skills on board. We will change this and make finding jobs or finding people simpler than ever before.  

3. For a decade in job search, everyone was looking for good discovery,  personalized job search - the correct matching. We still need to arrive, even  having the most advanced ML/AI and graph technology. Why is finding the  “right” apartment in Hongkong for next week easy, while finding the “right” job  two blocks away is difficult? Will open AI and, e.g., “chat gpt” impact  accelerating this now?  

Running job marketplaces successfully is hard. It’s hard because it requires understanding of people and their needs, their skills, their personalities as well as finding out what individual  users are looking for. With the help of artificial intelligence and machine learning, we match  millions of user profiles and jobs every day. Conversational artificial intelligence is the next  step on our journey because it helps us to create an almost human-to-human user  experience. This is not only driving user engagement, but significantly improving our  matchmaking capabilities. On top of that, conversational AI helps us to facilitate interactions between jobseekers and recruiters. One of the key challenges in recruiting is that we do not have instant feedback meaning that jobseekers can for up to four weeks on average to get feedback on a job application. With conversational AI, we can stimulate conversations and significantly reduce feedback time.  

4. The job market still needs to be more efficient. 83% of businesses struggle and say they don’t trust the hiring process, and 82% of all skilled workers are open to new jobs. Talent is today's #1 concern for CEOs, with 200Bn recruitment spend and a 1.6 trillion GDP impact from talent marketplaces. Is this mismatch going to be solved? If so, how and when?  

That is our goal. We are facing one of the biggest challenges in the 21 st century: the great  people shortage. For a long time now, the birth rates in more than a hundred countries are  no longer sufficient to keep the population stable. Therefore, hiring the right person for the  right job is no longer only a challenge for businesses, but an imperative for economies  around the world.  

5. You wrote a book Die große Arbeiterlosigkeit. What are the three key takeaways that you have learned? What have you learned since publishing that you would like to add to the book today?  

One smart person said to me: publishing a book will change your life. And he was right. I was pleased about the great media coverage my book and the topic of “Great People Shortage” received, of course. But more importantly, it has changed how people think about population trends and created awareness about the fact that we are running out of people. Now it is our job to redefine work and which role humans play in collaboration with machines and algorithms.  

6. Some analysts say we are already in a recession, in stagflation, interest rates  increasing, Russia/Ukraine war is devastating, we are deglobalizing, banks lack  reserves, own too much governmental debt, printing too much money, and  more. While at the same time, we are at the lowest unemployment rate in 50  years. There is a lot of power below the surface. Is this a good or bad thing? Are we at the end or the start of it? 

Where do you see this going globally, and  where do you see Europe in particular?  Of course, the current macro-environment is challenging - from an economic and social  aspects. But we should not underestimate our ability to adapt. Learning from experience and  using that knowledge to chart our path forward is one of our greatest strengths. For the  market in which StepStone operates, this means redefining the role of humans play in the  labor market: How can we make humans more productive through digitalization and  automation? And how can both humans and digital tools evolve by not simply co-existing but  interacting.  

7. We talked a lot about macroeconomics, given that only some people have a better understanding of connecting it to the labor market. How do you see private markets, startups, and venture capital? What are trends? Do you invest, and if yes, in what?  

The disruptive change towards more productivity can only succeed with investments in  innovations. However, in Germany in particular, we hesitate far too often. We need to learn  to accept failures, to promote new ideas and support entrepreneurs. While the US or Canada have one of the highest start-up rates compared to other industrialized nations, Germany is lagging behind. Yet innovative start-ups are an important driver of our economic  development; they stimulate competition, strengthen structural change and stimulate growth.  I see two long-term trends that will permanently change our economy. First, there is an  ageing society. Demographic change will give a massive boost to the healthcare market. And secondly, there is automation and robotics. The developments here will also change our life and work models. Looking at the market in which StepStone operates, this means that  recruiting processes will also become faster and better. And that is another reason why it is  worth watching the market for tech companies in general, but digital job platforms in  particular.  

My personal investment focus follows those megatrends: automation and robotics,  businesses focused on an aging society, and JobTech, of course.  

#1 Sebastian Dettmers

Emerging managers consistently outperform - especially in times of crisis.

All articles and statistics show emerging managers perform best. Emerging managers are hungry, driven, with grit and passion, want to do better, often follow a vision and a thesis, and constantly improve and adapt to the market to make it fit. They have to outperform; otherwise, there is no second or third fund - as simple as that. 

We are seeing a catharsis, a healing of the market, and an adjustment of valuations in private and public markets. "The king is dead; long live the king!" We are ending a cycle and entering a new one, and I am excited about it. While we are in a global crisis, horsepower lies below the surface (e.g., we have the lowest unemployment rate in decades). As a positive person, I see a bright future once the downturn ends. 

During this stagflation, we are witnessing a trend that accelerates - while companies in private and public markets become more efficient, Limited Partners are reevaluating their current portfolios and shifting their allocations. We see a "U-Curve," and with this, money from institutions, family offices, and High Net Worth Individuals is re-deployed in: 

1) Professional FoF (Fund on Fund) who do the evaluation work, due diligence, and understanding of trends, we see them rising. 

2) Shift to "Blue Chip" Venture Capital (e.g., Sequoia Capital, Verdane)

3) The atomization of VC in the early stage: Specialized Micro- and Nano funds and experienced Solo GPs

The mediocre are having a hard time fundraising. With that said, a "No first-time funds" investment rule handles not only legacy habits but also feels outdated, especially in a crisis. This time and these outstanding vintages ahead in the early stage are a fantastic time to reevaluate the portfolio strategy and adapt accordingly. 

Talking about emerging managers, I like to share the following findings. 

"We want our GPs focused on picking outliers, not creating them. Emerging managers can provide differentiated and diversified access to a pool of start-ups that more established brand names may not have access to." 

Jamie Rhode of Verdis Investment Management 

"We look for managers whose investment strategy is tailored to their unique, durable competitive advantage, who have demonstrated that they add significant value to founders, and with whom founders and other investors love to work."

Alex Edelson, Founder and General Partner at Slipstream

Some analysts say the world is already in a global recession; that we are in a stagflation. The US Fed Funds rate might increase again and stay “high.” This could extend this downturn into 2024. The strong dollar is creating a sovereign debt crisis in emerging markets. High energy prices and European political mismanagement dealing with this are causing problems, and the German GDP and others are decreasing. Dept/GDP Ratio of PIGS and Italy are unhealthy and could cause another Europe crisis. European banks have yet to build reserves and own too much government debt. Real estate prices are falling while buying a house with high rates is not financeable to the people. Additionally, building a house has become too expensive following a global material shortage. China is in covid crisis. Russia and Ukraine war is happening, and it is devastating. And on deglobalizing, Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., gave a speech at a plant the chipmaker is building in Phoenix, Arizona, on Dec. 6. He said, “Globalization is almost dead, and free trade is almost dead. Many people still wish they would come back, but I don't think they will be back." 

I can’t predict macroeconomics. But for all the above mentioned, I see the following years as a very positive opportunity to invest in private companies (early stage). 

The best time to invest in early-stage start-ups is now. And many say, “2023-2025 will be the best years yet for Venture Capital.” Diamonds were made under pressure from 2007-2011. These tech companies were founded between 2007 and 2011 and/or have become strong during that economic downturn: 

If you want to start a company, now is the time! 

Suppose you want to invest in venture capital. Now is the time of emerging managers, the hungry, the driven, and the hustling working with the best entrepreneurs! 

Why is now a good time to invest in venture capital? 

Hi, I’m Robin Haak. I’m an entrepreneur and active investor, and today I'm excited to unveil "Robin Fund l," which has been crafted to put founders first.

Having been a founder myself, from ideation to unicorn, I want to offer my experience and network to help position early-stage founders for long-term success. I get energized by being a sparring partner and giving it my all to help leaders and their organization's scale. 

As a founder, I’ve worked on building software and technology solutions to meaningful problems and continue to do so as an investor. 

I see value in reducing unnecessary friction and making the world more effortless, while maintaining a positive impact with my "DNA for good" approach. The “Robin Fund I” venture fund is small by design, enabling me to collaborate with entrepreneurs and value-add investors actively. Working as a solo GP allows me to be fast, nimble, efficient, accountable, and perform with high conviction.

#early After co-founding an accelerator early in my career, I was the first investor in the unicorn fintech startup N26 and more than 40 other startups. I worked hard to attract the N26 team to join us at a conference, where I convinced them to take us on their cap table and join us in our accelerator. 

I loved my job, and we were very successful, but it was the beginning of my investment career, and I lacked experience. I wanted to earn the position of being able to share knowledge and first-row experiences. This job was all about setting my north star. 

#founder When founding Jobspotting, we, as founders, paid ourselves minimum wage for three long years, during which I pitched hundreds of investors. It was a humbling experience that taught me patience, resilience, and perseverance, but first and foremost, it taught me about team love and the importance of gratitude. With a deep-tech AI/ML product, we were ahead of our time but managed a good exit, and I learned how to build around significant problems. This job taught me about startup and team values. 

#operator When joining and investing in SmartRecruiters, I moved part-time to San Francisco, where I took on the global operations for selling Enterprise B2B SaaS software globally, building and expanding the international go-to-market function. I took care of fundraising, and with this, I learned to have responsibility for hundreds of employees. Being in a fast-growing environment headquartered in the USA turns you into an athlete; you work on excellence and flawless execution, learn from the best, including your peers/coworkers, and work hard. This job taught me all about leadership. 

#growth When building Revaia, I learned the value of "high conviction." Not following the herd and doing extensive and hard work on deals and portfolios, but instead, sourcing, picking, winning, valuing, constructing, helping, and returning. It helped me understand my deep love for portfolio work and the ways in which I can add value. I was thankful and happy to be able to partner and work with outstanding entrepreneurs at companies such as Aircall, Getaccept, Fronitfy, and more. This job was about finding purpose. 

#focus Through Fund One, I will primarily invest in Angel, Pre-Seed to Series A, and occasionally in Growth-stage companies. I am vertical agnostic and will focus on software and technology solutions to significant problems.

#community I will continue to build communities - as I am and have been on advisory boards such as Slush, Wo\men Inc., and Stepstone - it’s a passion of mine to help others grow and provide advice where I can. 

Today, I see myself shifting from the building to the service industry. Serving founders is my pleasure, but likewise, I will serve my limited partners by delivering superior returns and involving and connecting all of my partners in an equal way. I want everyone working with me to join this community and become successful together while having fun.  

#dailywork I am highly flexible on the round compilation: I do not care about stake and want to enable the correct round and syndicate for every company every time: high conviction and fast decision-making with high accountability, responsibility, transparency, respect, and trust. I will be working on creating real value in the entrepreneurial corner and working very hard one-on-one as a partner and friend, not as a brand or firm. 

I have so much respect for this new role, but there is no courage without fear. I know it’s hard to do a solo GP, but this is how I can best serve both investors and founders. 

Thank you all for supporting my journey! I am thrilled and honored that you have read this far. I’m now off to fundraising and will complete the first closing as soon as possible, so I can start investing in outstanding entrepreneurs and help them build pre-eminent companies that make a real impact. I can't wait for it. 

Again, I am grateful for all of your support – thank you!

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